I Feel Your Pain: The Effect of Regulator as a Minority Shareholder on Merger and Acquisition Performance

We examine the effect of a regulator-led advocate for minority shareholders on merger and acquisition (M&A) performance in China. In recent years, the China Securities Regulatory Commission established the China Securities Investor Services Center (CSISC), which began its ownership of 100 shares of public firms in 2016. The CSISC advocates for the interests of minority shareholders proactively. Focusing on abnormal stock returns in M&A announcements, we find that acquirers that have the CSISC as a shareholder (CSISC acquirers) exhibit higher positive abnormal stock returns than non-CSISC acquirers. Cross-sectional analysis suggests that the core results are mainly driven by firms with severe agency problems and weak external/internal monitoring, and those not controlled by the state. In addition, we find that CSISC acquirers have better long-term performance and encounter more M&A failures than non-CSISC acquirers. Our findings indicate that although the CSISC only holds 100 shares of listed companies, it plays an effective role in monitoring and driving firms to make appropriate M&A decisions.     

Performance effects of innovation in two-sided markets: The paradigmatic case of OTAs

Online Travel Agents (OTAs) play an important intermediary role in the two-sided travel distribution market. A critical factor that enhances a firm's competitive advantage is innovation. Yet, the analysis of innovation in the OTA context is scarce. The main objective of this article is to fill this gap and examine the effect of OTA innovations on firm performance. We analyze the effect of two-sided market specific innovations (same-side and cross-side) on performance and contribute to the literature by expanding the theoretical understanding of innovations. We find that producer-to-consumer innovations have a greater effect on OTA performance than producer-to-producer and consumer-to-consumer innovations. A fundamental managerial implication is that exchange management is an area to be enhanced when innovating in travel market distribution.     

全国煤炭交易中心运营模式研究

全国煤炭交易中心的设立对规范我国煤炭交易市场规则、实施能源宏观调控、提升我国煤炭国际定价话语权具有重要意义。在分析全国煤炭交易中心功能定位和业务的基础上,设计中长期合同邀约、现货挂牌、现货竞价、现货招投标4种交易模式及业务流程,提出依托国家重大战略争取政策支持、加强各方沟通完善综合物流体系、建立银企合作机制与信用体系、完善煤炭交易中心协调机制、增强信息服务与风险防控能力等对策建议。研究成果对优化煤炭供给结构、规范煤炭交易市场和保障国家煤炭能源安全提供了支撑。     

我国“一带一路”沿线地区风险投资时空分布及影响因素研究

深入分析我国“一带一路”沿线地区风险投资时空格局及影响因素，有助于促进创新创业与企业发展、提高区域科技创新水平。运用空间分析方法和空间计量模型，对2003-2018年我国“一带一路”沿线139个城市风险投资的时空分布特征及影响因素进行分析，结果表明：①沿线地区的风险投资发展具有不均衡性，呈现为沿海高、西部低的分异格局；②风险投资的全局自相关系数均为正，呈现出明显的空间集聚特征；③风险投资机构数、国家高新区数量、风险投资退出、政府引导基金发展、财政科技支出对区域风险投资具有显著促进作用，环境污染对风险投资有一定抑制作用。随着ESG投资理念逐渐获得认可，沿线地区可以通过提升绿色发展水平促进风险投资发展。     

M5 competition uncertainty: Overdispersion,distributional forecasting,GAMLSS, and beyond

The M5 competition uncertainty track aims for probabilistic forecasting of sales of thousands of Walmart retail goods. We show that the M5 competition data face strong overdispersion and sporadic demand, especially zero demand. We discuss modeling issues concerning adequate probabilistic forecasting of such count data processes. Unfortunately, the majority of popular prediction methods used in the M5 competition (e.g. lightgbm and xgboost GBMs) fail to address the data characteristics, due to the considered objective functions. Distributional forecasting provides a suitable modeling approach to overcome those problems. The GAMLSS framework allows for flexible probabilistic forecasting using low-dimensional distributions. We illustrate how the GAMLSS approach can be applied to M5 competition data by modeling the location and scale parameters of various distributions, e.g. the negative binomial distribution. Finally, we discuss software packages for distributional modeling and their drawbacks, like the R package gamlss with its package extensions, and (deep) distributional forecasting libraries such as TensorFlow Probability.     

Planning the delivery of relief supplies upon the occurrence of a natural disaster while considering the assembly process of the relief kits

Models for the distribution of relief supplies often assume immediate availability of relief items upon the occurrence of a natural disaster. However, such an assumption does not always apply in realistic settings. In some cases, at least it is necessary to assemble relief items into kits before distributing them among the affected population. This paper presents a rolling horizon methodology that considers dynamic parameters such as demand, capacities and demand priorities for the problem of distributing relief supplies after the occurrence of a natural disaster by including such assembling activities before the delivery.     

国防产业联盟协同创新网络政府治理：基于语义挖掘技术的策略向度研究

国防产业联盟发展的关键在于科学管理协同创新网络。政策注意力聚焦点反映政府治理创新网络的策略向度，不同政府层级间的注意力分布结构差异表明该策略向度的偏向性。通过人工构建主题词袋，计算主题词TF-IDF权值及余弦相似度，对中央和地方共96份政策文件、1 926份新闻文章进行规模化语义分析，整体评估政府治理国防产业联盟协同创新网络的策略适应性，并测量其在实施与宣传过程中的偏向性。结果发现，网络拓展是首要策略选择，网络管理方式为引导而非参与，关系耦合度低，网络愿景策略运用有限。地方政府在实施过程中出现了策略偏异和策略调整；政策宣传更接近地方政府的策略向度。     

Logistics optimization through a social approach for food distribution

The management of supply chains is becoming more important in economic and social environments. Currently, the social sustainability is a factor that must be considered to design governmental strategies and policies. The objective of this research paper was to show, with a case study an approach to optimize distribution and delivery logistics of food in a social assistance program of school breakfast using mathematical models that include transportation distance, optimal locations, and vehicle routing through different clusters. By using qualitative variables like poverty levels, food insecurity and social exclusion, different clustering methods are proposed with the purpose of identifying the common characteristics in the studied population; and at the same time, reducing the distribution complexity. The results show an efficient approach to design a supply chain that includes economic and social factors. The new model developed in this paper can be used to plan social assistance governmental programs, to identify the specific needs and characteristics of the beneficiaries, minimizing the total cost of the distribution network logistics when delivering food for school meals.     

Impact of the Fast Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP) on agricultural production: A tobacco success story in Zimbabwe?

The study ascertained the impact of the Fast Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP) in Zimbabwe on tobacco production. The Chow Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Vector Error Granger-Causality Test were applied. The results reveal that there was a structural break in tobacco sales in the year 2000. Furthermore, in the long-run, area under tobacco production had a positive impact whilst number of tobacco producers had a negative impact on tobacco sold pre-FTLRP. Post-FTLRP, area of tobacco and number of tobacco producers had negative impact. In addition, the FTLRP induced an 8.94 % increase in the speed of adjustment in correcting the long-run equilibrium in tobacco sales. In the short-run, the FTLRP caused a percentage increase in the area of tobacco production and number of tobacco producers to induce a 0.65 % and 0.76 % increase in the tobacco sales, respectively. Area of tobacco production and number of tobacco producers Granger-caused tobacco sales in the pre-FTLRP period. Post-FTLRP, the number of tobacco growers Granger-caused tobacco sales. It is concluded that the FTLRP had an impact on tobacco sales, mainly through the number of tobacco growers. The study recommends the specialisation and training of the new farmers to improve productivity.     

Specialization dynamics

This paper proposes a new empirical framework for analyzing specialization dynamics. A country’s pattern of specialization is viewed as a distribution across sectors, and statistical techniques for analyzing the evolution of this entire distribution are employed. The empirical framework is implemented using data on 20 industries in seven OECD countries since 1970. We find substantial mobility in patterns of specialization. Over time horizons of 5 years, this is largely explained by forces common across countries, including world prices and common changes in technical efficiency. Over longer time horizons, country-specific changes in factor endowments become more important. There is no evidence of an increase in countries’ overall degree of specialization.